This entry on HTML5 and Flash needs to be read, and read again.

I remember playing with Flash 3 and animating some simple shapes around. At the time I thought it was interesting, but there really wasn't much you could do other than animating. If you wanted to code complex things then you went with JavaScript.

I also remember playing with animation through JavaScript in Dreamweaver 3 (or 4?) over 10 years ago and marveling at how it would enable me to create animation directly through JavaScript without having to use the Flash Player. But reality set in and I realized that if I wanted to reach over 90% of the users out there I should just use the Flash Player because animating with JavaScript (at that time) was a nightmare with the different browsers.

Reality is beginning to creep back into the HTML5 vs. Flash discussion and it's becoming clear that we have a few more years before the real HTML5 revolution sets in. The question is, will the users and developers wait, or will Adobe fail where Macromedia didn't?